Tag: Confidence

Categories
Emotional Work Politics

1370 and Ride or Die

Americans aren’t showing the loyalty we used to be known for these days. It’s embarrassing to see the big games we talk from politics to Wall Street. If it’s all big talk then of course the world laughs when we fail to be steadfast.

Maybe that’s why we have such a glorious oeuvre of “ride or die” art. From literature and cinema to Lana Del Ray we want people who commit even when the risks are unquestionably large and success isn’t assured.

That means a lot of hurt. And not caring who knows you’ve committed to a risky or even crazy caper. Lana waited for an alligator wrangler for fuck’s sake.

From her Blue Jeans lyrics it sure looks like she’s seen her share of bullshitters caught up in the game.

I stayed up waitin’, anticipatin’ and pacin’
But he was chasing paper
“Caught up in the game, ” that was the last I heard

And maybe that’s the point of America’s love of the ride or die. The risks are clear. But the reward for loyalty knows a deeper satisfaction than those who get caught up in the game. Don’t chase the paper and expect the game to care. Only people care. And we should all aspire to loyalty beyond reproach.

Categories
Internet Culture Politics

Day 1368 and Lending Credibility

The dead internet theory (or conspiracy theory if you must) supposes that machine generated content outweighs human contributions.

I don’t think we are there just yet but I am betting that artificial intelligence speeds up the process of replacing human content in areas where it’s unnecessary. Machines can act on their own and it’s good thing potentially too.

Being able to determine what is human intelligence versus machine intelligence may well be mitigated through trust-less cryptographic systems we take for granted. Handshake protocols for humans and machines.

Some content and transactions are just fine coming from artificial intelligence but others have to demonstrate a human identity. This may even require compute on human’s behalf

Looking forward, the ability to access compute at scale will likely parallel the right to transact. Identity will be layered and lending credibility and capital will look different. Who has credit and credibility?

As nations navigate their own risks, network state behaviors on the individual level will become more prevalent, driven by the need for secure, decentralized transactions that ensure autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

The internet isn’t dying. It’s being reborn to serve the next stage of credible actors on our world.

Categories
Aesthetics Politics Preparedness

Day 1362 and Hilux Drip

The right to repair movement is a worthy effort fighting the banal evil of planned obsolescence.

If you aren’t familiar with the term, it’s an economic and industrial design strategy to deliberately make products with shorter functional lives to “shorten the replacement cycle” aka make you buy a new one.

If you are a user of Apple products (as I am) then you are probably familiar with its reputation for degrading service. They are paying out to the tune of 500m for the practice.

But right to repair issues and planned obsolescence doesn’t just happen in electronics. It’s a problem in auto repair and home appliances too. Repairing a broken part can be more expensive than buying a new item.

And it’s getting worse. Computer chips are now in everything from your refrigerators and dishwasher to your car. Consumers reasonably loathe the increased complexity and challenges of repairing major purchases when everything is “smart.”

At this point I’m willing to pay more money for appliances with zero smart features and physical controls for everything. @ Kelsey Hightower

And I fear most of our regulatory climate is dedicated to making this problem worse. When Japanese automakers first come to the United States their vehicles had longer lifespans so American carmakers were forced to respond by building more durable products. That was a positive thing.

But geopolitical tensions being what they are the, U.S. Commerce Department proposed a national security ban on certain Chinese and Russian-made car parts from U.S. roads The motive is to protect American consumers from digital surveillance and hijacking. But who knows what gets caught up in the effort as we could be allowing in parts that make it easier to repair our own cars.

If we learned anything from Japanese cars it’s that allowing competition was an unalloyed good. There are cars I wish we had in America like the iconic Toyota Hilux. Here is a synopsis from Perplexity on why the Toyota Hilux is considered to be so durable. It’s got a robust chassis, a simple design that is easy to repair, minimal electronics and high quality components.

But you can’t own a Hilux in America. Why? The “Chicken Tax,” a tariff on light trucks, was imposed by the United States in retaliation for tariffs placed by other countries on American chickens.

But maybe it’s good we Americans can’t have a light truck that is easy to repair and designed to last. The internet has a long lore of memes dedicated to the car’s use in revolutions. You certainly wouldn’t want Americans getting any ideas about that.

A viral parody meme about why the Hilux is the choice for insurgents

Categories
Internet Culture Politics

Day 1356 and Sick Sad World

Current ways of knowing are (maybe rightly) under scrutiny. Some of us attempt to source truth by look backwards citing Chesterton’s Fence.

I’ve been skeptical of romanticizing the past as traditional ways of knowing can be bad cultures too. Sick societies are a constant companion of human nature no matter how we long for that Paradise Lost.

Maladaptive cargo cults are everywhere (Silicon Valley has dozens of flavors) and these superstitions ca. reproduce for generations if nutritional gradients are surplus.n

Noble savages are as silly a concept as high minded aristocracy. You probably know a few maladaptive emotionally sick types within your own communities.

Next on Sick Sad World

Remember the long running joke of Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert? Truthiness. Emotive truthiness reigns supreme as “news-like” content bubbles in the Internet of AI slop battle out the truth of an issue not with verifiable facts but verifiable feelings. Which one is more maladaptive?

We were subjected to a week’s worth of BBQing content which was digested by the American psyche until we switched to the new cycle of a crazed would-be assassin and his failed attempt to kill former president Trump.

If so much of our society is maladaptive copies of civilizational failures, the best any of us can do is pray we are humble enough to see truth and we willing to adapt our ways to it.

Categories
Culture Preparedness

1355 and Critical Desalination Point

Being under the weather over the weekend, I’m watching comfort content. I like science fiction and big splashy science disaster porn.

I finally watched the 2019 Chinese “Wandering Earth” based on a short story by Liu Cixin

It was nice to see a big budget Chinese film with some modest Warrior Wolf diplomacy but it was mostly interesting because of the immense engineering projects and the scope of the thing.

I loved Roland Emmerich movies as a young woman. Splashy big budget movies that turned on goofy science jargon like “we’ve hit a critical desalination point!”

Dennis Quaid is an Everyman scientist

Remember a time when NOAA scientists could be heroes? Yeah it didn’t work that great. Trust the science. Alas we don’t have the same respect for government scientists in the era before Covid. I wonder what it would take to save the world.

Categories
Media

Day 1350 and Dumb and Angry

“They want you dumb and angry”

Riling up the people (the proletariat if you are nasty) is a time honored method of keeping us under control. Socrates did it. The Roman emperors did it. The New York Times and the Walk Street Journal do it.

Not getting all caught up in being stupid and reactive is a huge responsibility. And not everyone wants to hand “the people” the type of responsibility that staying free entails.

Freedom at scale requires some surrendering of responsibility to others. We outsource what we can’t possibly know to people we trust. It’s clear some of us have forgotten how to trust. And who can blame us. Institutions rise and fall. Priests, Lords and Kings fell to the people.

We then promptly built up new ways to assign authority. For a while we trusted academics, reporters and politicians. Perhaps a few celebrities and billionaire entrepreneurs retain some authority now. I honestly don’t know. The lone man with his own opinion can scarcely compete.

I’m not sure if there was ever a time when an individual could have a “good bead” on reality. The mythos of the American post World War 2 GI Bill educated mass media literate Baby Boomers sure thought they had a grasp on reality. Being directionally correct about Vietnam and Nixon helped I’m sure.

That’s the fantasy I miss most from my childhood. I read “Manufacturing Consent,” Howard Zinn and AdBusters. I thought it was possible to see around the machine. Maybe and I are both Noam Chomsky kind of simple minded. At least now I’m only certain that I’m part of the machine. Perhaps there was never any separation from it.

Categories
Startups Travel

Day 1342 and SKU Bloat ZIRP Era

I was doing some packaging preparation for fall travel and was pleased to discover that I’d finally appeared to have built out a basics wardrobe that actually mixed and matched well. A decent capsule wardrobe I bought I’d never achieve had come together after literally a decade of failed promises from startups.

There was an era of direct to consumer startups that promised quality and simplicity. A startup would launch with few basic but upscale stock keeping units (or SKUs) that promised they would be all you needed to own at a fair price point. This was alluring proposition for many early entrepreneurs including myself.

The premise was simple. Why would you want to add unnecessary complexity to tee-shirts, glasses, or toiletries when you could get something good without worrying if you were paying a markup for branding or retail margins?

The DTC boom has been largely looked at as failure as a movement for both consumers and businesses. With the benefit of hindsight, many of the businesses relied heavily on growth that couldn’t be achieved without either expanding your retail presence in stores or without giving up on providing simple basics.

As the zero percent interest rate era boomed, brands released constant new and novel SKUs to chase growth in every vertical from sneakers to lipstick. The goal of better prices and simpler products failed under the weight of driving growth at scale. Darlings became pariahs and founders sold to roll up private equity firms.

ZIRP ended as post pandemic era inflation demanded higher interest rates. We all complained bitterly about cost and quality of consumer goods in the aftermath.

And yet maybe we judged things too harshly. A chaotic decade of changing macroeconomic conditions were not easy to navigate. The growth required by venture and private equity were always going to conflict with a simple ethos of shopping.

But here I am with exactly what I wanted from my shopping choices at the start. I’ve got my quality basics merchandised in a simple way from brands I purchased from directly. In other news, the Everlane Barrel Pants are excellent.

Categories
Chronicle

Day 1327 and Circling

I feel like I’m going backwards with my daily project of writing every single day. Maybe backwards isn’t the right direction so much as in circling round into comfortable spaces. No one wants to find themselves floating in solipsism.

I’ve given myself a lot of flexibility in capturing a mood or a tidbit or a theme from the day and running with it. Interiority is a perfectly acceptable vantage for personal writing but I want to connect to a wider perspective with it.

But I don’t know if I’m progressing in any real direction with this experiment as of late.

I could be speaking from the August doldrums (it’s more August exhaustion as I’ve been working a lot). It’s possible I will have a streak of great essays just around the bend. But it’s safe to say that day isn’t today.

Categories
Politics Startups

Day 1322 and You Can Just Do Things

The older you are the more you begin to accept the way things “are” in the world. We’ve come to accept layers of professionalism between us and the real work of the world as we go about pursuing our own comparative advantage.

Surely someone is handling the bits we are not as this is an advanced civilization right? I fucking wish.

I don’t wish to disparage our expert managerial class but we are all human. The experts are just operating from past biases and some of them haven’t been updated in quite a while. The people in charge might even be quite wrong.

Sometimes things are much easier than you imagine. I remember being asked when fundraising for a cosmetics business about the relative challenge of sourcing manufacturing.

The bias ten years ago was that there must be exclusive manufacturers who make the nice things they sell at department store. Turns out any idiot who can underwrite a purchase order to buy anything they like for an astonishing array of things.

Now maybe you think ok but not all businesses are like this right many businesses have regulatory challenges and someone responsible must be in charge of all of that.

Surprise those are regular people too. And most of them have LinkedIn profiles now. Everything from the bureaucracy at the Department of Energy to the local zoning board is one like now

I spent a few years on a community board that oversaw liquor licenses in lower Manhattan right after Trump was elected as I wanted to be a more active participant in my own democracy.

Turns out a lot of life goes on at the local level and the levers of democracy go through having your papers in order. American life has a lot of paperwork. If you wanted to serve alcohol at your establishment you went through me and a couple other normal citizens at the liquor board

Most businesses spent small fortunes on laws to manage the paperwork of doing business. It was expensive and time consuming and I looked at a lot of Michelin caliber restaurant business plans.

I did everything I could to make sure a license got through. Most of the board had a similar attitude. We’d redo applications on live at a meeting sometimes which made them go for hours. But generally the goal was to get permits approved and have there be no issues that could trip the business up.

I felt I had a civic obligation to be more involved in helping people just do things. You can get through the paperwork.

I want Zoomers to do their best to convince the older people living in the past to help us update our priors. You can just do things.

You can find a laboratory for a formula or a factory for parts. You can find the regulators and local people on board and convince them of the soundness of your plans. You can just do things. Even if someone says something is hard you can probably do it. Even impossible things might have a chance if you just keep working the problems.

Categories
Startups

Day 1318 and Intention

I am experiencing a peace about the future I didn’t fully expect to find. I’ve been lucky enough to have a number of long term efforts start to paint a picture of success.

I began a process of examination of my last several years somewhere in the last half decade as I prepare myself and my work the next stage of growth. I’ve made a number of fairly significant decisions as my idea of where the future is headed and how I myself expect to live in it. A lot of these choices are public and revealed preferences. I don’t make it a secret.

I’ve been considered a doomer only because I think one has to look with calm and clear eyes at the problems in front of you. Only then can you really build optimism about your capacity to improve. Being merely positive isn’t a bad thing, but positivity is only driving you towards success if you are planning realistically. A good attitude is just a starting point.

I’ve taken things slowly. Sometimes it feels painfully so. But the intentions I had to be prepared to live in a more chaotic world means I live a stable life now even as daily uncertainties exist for everyone.

My intention is to approach building the future with optimism. The problems are large but I work with many focused and sober minded people who actually can and do build solutions. Fighting the future won’t do much. But who says it’s got to be a fight? Maybe we can bring on better things.