Tag: Democracy

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Politics Startups

Day 1430 and Realignment

American politics has become center of gravity for culture. I’m not thrilled about this as I have utopian high mindedness in my bones and that never pairs well with the real politic of a nation.

I felt being open to change was a part of my cultural upbringing as an American. Reagan Revolution babies enjoyed Clinton neoliberal growth. Optimism meant being interested in technology.

I have never been satisfied with reality because “we can do better” was both the regional culture of frontier Western civilization but America in particular.

We can imagine better which means we can do better. Somewhere between the neoconservatives forever wars, liberalism’s tolerance of intolerance and the growth of an expensive permanent state bureaucracy we lost some shine.

Losing our can-do spirit to fear and zero sum thinking led to strange institutional outcomes. Watching fear spread over years of pandemic and institutional failures did not help.

I’m not a novel voice in this discourse but most of the startup world and technologists in general had sincere affiliations with American institutional liberalism and even in particular the flavor of Democratic neoliberalism you might have associated with Bloomberg. The Obama administration certainly acted as if we were part of the coalition. The sincerity of that alliance is a question of course.

I don’t know where the realignment lands as we go forward but I hope as many people as possible sincerely embrace wanting more optimism.

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Culture

Day 1416 and Lagom

As no cultural heritage must remain uncommercialized, you can find many pop culture best sellers on Swedish “lagom” philosophy.

“Not too little, not too much. Just right”

I’d actually never heard of it until today despite being the daughter of a Swedish American man. I am not one for balance though I actually do live a life of simple routines.

But I did recognize my lcultural upbringing when I stumbled across this piece on why the Nordic countries score so well on happiness scales. Apparently it is less “lagom” balance and more that we have reasonable expectations for life.

Consistent with their Lutheran heritage, the Nordic countries are united in their embrace of curbed aspirations for the best possible life.

This mentality is famously captured in the Law of Jante—a set of commandments believed to capture something essential about the Nordic disposition to personal success:

“You’re not to think you are anything special; you’re not to imagine yourself better than we are; you’re not to think you are good at anything”

I did not think I was anything special as a child. I’d laugh listening to Garrison Keillor describe the Lake Wobegon residents who were all above average. Those jokes landed with Minnesotans because who would be so foolish as to set unrealistic expectations?

I went through most of my life with the presumption that I was totally normal. I liked ketchup didn’t I? I wasn’t out of the ordinary and didn’t think I was especially intelligent or attractive relative to my peers.

As it turns out this was a real lack of self knowledge on my part. But it set me up for happiness. Every win feels fantastic because in my head I’m just a normal girl from a normal family who will achieve normal things.

None of that ended up being true. And I’ve been pleased to find myself actually quite a bit above average. They say expectations are premeditated resentments. And I have precious few of those.

Maybe I have achieved lagom. I’ve got just the right amount of expectations for my life. Set it low and your achievements will always be great.

Categories
Media Politics

Day 1415 and Sliding Off The Board

It’s fun watching an entire nation realize none of our citizens functionally have opinions of their own as all of the tribalism of the American system slides off the board into the swamp of personal animus.

– @almostmedia

The great realignment is in full swing. And no one is sure where they stand. The worst thing you believe about your enemy is surely true just as only the very best things about yourself count.

Ego versus ego blunders against each other. The slow glugging of inertia and bureaucracy and nihilism begins to tug. First time?

It’d worth reading Riva Tez’s essay “no matter who wins you lose”

“We are so much worse off than the Athenians during their similar stages of decline. Thucydides once wrote, “The Athenians, who were the most democratic of all the Greeks, were also the most prone to make mistakes, for they were always in a hurry to decide, and were swayed by the emotions of the moment.”

The political satire of the poets in Athenian theaters heavily influenced the city’s political decisions, just as TikTok and the Guardiansway millions of malleable minds now.”

What do we believe as RFK Jr discusses previously quite left wing coded hippie truisms about industrial agriculture and pharmaceutical company incentives.

The institutionalists are the left now and oddly they like Monsanto. But now Bari Weiss is arguing for the value of institutionalists against Peter Thiel. Are we really in for a new era of anti-institutionalism? Do we know where the board even is anymore? Don’t slip and slide into the swamp because you don’t like someone.

Categories
Politics

Day 1406 and Relief

I am so relieved to have the American presidential election wrapped up within just one day. I didn’t think we’d be so lucky to have things decided so quickly.

I was emotionally prepared for a long interregnum with bitter fighting over a slim margin of votes. I remember both 2000 and 2020 and neither hanging chads nor storming chads were pleasant experiences.

I did my normal natural disaster preparation routine of stocking groceries, doing laundry, and washing up. In preparedness communities, we always recommend facing a storm with clean clothes.

But it seemed pretty clear where we were headed last night around 11pm on the west coast when I went to bed. I woke up to the election having been called. Blessedly the margin was so clear a concession speech was soon in order.

I’m not much of a partisan as libertarians are America’s classic independents. I’ve voted for Democrats and I registered as a Republican in Colorado before settling on simply calling myself an independent here in Montana. I spend time on each race, candidate and ballot initiative. I ticket split. I believe in free people and free markets.

I was asked if this election outcome was good or bad for business. I responded that “decided” is good for business. Private industry can manage if it knows the rules of the road.

Now we know where things stand. If you follow financial news you saw the jubilance in the markets. Maybe the interregnum was actually the the campaign season. Either way we’ve got more direction on where we are headed and that means we can act with more confidence.

Categories
Community Politics

Day 1405 and America is Speaking

I spent several hours with my ballot last night. My husband and I engaged in scenario planning with every race and ballot initiative though we’ve been following them all closely through the year.

We have done our best to get engaged in the civic life of Montana because that is our obligation as people with time and resources.. There are many excellent non-partisan groups dedicated to a range of everyday issues from housing policy and education to more abstract policy like the right to compute. I recommend the Frontier Institute if you are inclined towards libertarian and growth policies.

We’d been lucky enough to meet many of the candidates who were running for a range of offices from federal, state and judicial. It’s a privilege to be a part of the process and every candidate makes a huge sacrifice to run for office. They make themselves accountable to us.

Nothing feels quite as good as voting for your neighbor. John Lamb the libertarian candidate for our Secretary of State is a good neighbor with a wonderful family. I believe in the value of voting for your neighbors. He and I align on many issues and where we do not I remind myself that it need not divide us. I know he raised wonderful children. Which means more than any individual policy.

Now, of course, many of my preferred candidates won’t be elected. It’s possible the ballot initiatives I support do not have the support of the majority. I did what I could to have my voice heard through the election season and today with my ballot.

A line at of rougly hundred deep to vote on Main Street in Bozeman Montana at 4:30pm Mountain Time. It is below freezing and snowing

Montana allows any voter to request a ballot by mail. You can also vote in person. Montana offers early voting. I’ve voted in three elections since we’ve moved here and I’ve never seen a presidential year turnout. Even with so many options to vote ahead and avoid the lines we still had hundreds of people lined up to vote.

We dropped our ballot and drove home. American is speaking now.

Categories
Politics

Day 1390 and Rage Against The Machine

As we are getting down to the finish line of the American election season I don’t know how we will do it. It’s all exhausting even though it’s filled with comedy.

I fear another interregnum as the transition from Trump to Biden was an anxious time. I doubt this will be better given the polling is a dead heat and no one knows what to believe.

I’m old enough to remember the Brook’s Brothers riots and hanging chads of 2000. I had just started my own chronicles here on January 6th such that I didn’t even name it as Day 6th. It’s been a long four years.

Being caught up in the concerns of great powers is a little silly when you are just a bystander. I work on my local issues here in Montana and I vouch for issues where I feel I have particular expertise like compute.

What I thought I knew in 2000 and what I think I know now in 2024 feels like a chasm. I enjoyed Rage Against the Machine as a teen and now I find that Caesar Chavez granddaughter is running an establishment political campaign. I don’t know what to make of anything. Maybe the only through line has been my skepticism of central banks.

Categories
Finance Startups

Day 1376 and Q3 2024 Investor Update & Market Analysis for Chaotic Capital

Welcome to the Q3 2024 update for chaotic.capital LPs. I’m choosing to post a selection of our reporting publicly so prospective founders and LPs can see our thinking.

You may be invested in chaotic.capital because we invest in ideas that adapt humanity to our new chaotic era.

Enabling resilience in the face of unexpected & rapid change is our lodestar. It’s a simple heuristic that yields a complex thesis: that technology is a tool for increasing leverage. 

In addition to these investor letters, you can always visit jfredrickson.com, where I write every single day about whatever I’m thinking about. You are also welcome to DM me on Twitter @AlmostMedia or text me on Signal any time.

Q3 was another strong quarter for chaotic.capital. Our ability to identify and back founders early remains core to our success and we’re seeing it both with the inbound flow from founders (as seen in the two new deals we did this quarter) as well as the progress from our existing portfolio, with four new markups this quarter and substantial business progress on those and others.

The markets are increasingly focused on power and compute. What was once a contrarian focus on energy, infrastructure, crypto, and artificial intelligence has now become a core narrative among informed investors.

We believe the future of compute—particularly in relation to crypto and AI—will increasingly be viewed as a basic right, not a privilege, as these technologies scale to mass adoption. 

As governments grow more cautious about debt and monetary risk, individuals and organizations will turn to trustless systems to ensure secure transactions and autonomy.

This is why we focus our investments in the space on foundational layers that will power the next generation of applications.

With portfolio companies like Squads providing on-chain economy tooling, Kuzco reducing reliance on intermediaries while creating an open market, SFCompute pricing compute and creating spot markets, and Chroma becoming the go-to choice for open source vector databases, we see the intersection of crypto and AI creating secure, scalable systems for individuals and organizations alike.

Access to compute is quickly becoming synonymous with freedom of speech and, ultimately, the freedom to transact. 

These open trustless systems enable efficient transactions and verification, a crucial development as geopolitical multipolarity continues to rise, and more people need to ensure their interactions are secure without reliance on the state.

While Americans might not yet fully appreciate this, we’re seeing growing demand for these alternative systems and open models from those who are navigating increasing regulatory pressures and instability.

Europeans, whose governments are deploying strict limits on AI models are beginning to understand, those from countries facing geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Israel, Ukraine), live it already, and those in countries with unreliable currencies and legal systems have been navigating anarcho-tyranny for decades.

But it can be precarious in the US as well, in California it was only the intervention of a veto from Gavin Newsom that prevented SB-1047 from restricting compute and hobbling the development of open source models.

Looking forward, this ability to access compute at scale may well parallel the right to transact. As nations confront their own risks, network state behaviors will become more prevalent, driven by the need for secure, decentralized systems that ensure autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

We’re excited about the future of chaotic.capital and the opportunities ahead. As always, I’d love to talk about any of this with your discussions with you, so feel free to reach out. We’re just getting started, and there’s much more to come.

Categories
Internet Culture Politics

Day 1369 and California SB-1047 Vetoed

Last night I received a push alert and then a flurry of excited text messages and phone calls. California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed the controversial SB-1047 artificial intelligence bill.

Gavin Newsom vetoes California’s contentious AI “safety” bill SB-1047

Twitter lit up with joyful streams of relief and praise for this decision. Everyone from politicians, economists, researchers, academic luminaries, open source collectives, founders and venture capitalists.

It was a bad bill that lacked the necessary clarity and focus to even begin the task of regulating the nascent field of artificial intelligence.

We can and will do better in finding regulatory frameworks for safety and competitiveness but this bill wasn’t it. It was especially concerning as they say so goes California so goes the world.

I have been banging on about the #FreedomToCompute and math’s crucial role in our constitutional right to free speech in America. This must be considered in all future attempts at regulation in America.

Math and computing power are as essential as speech. In today’s world, they ARE speech. We may speak in natural language, but the way we extend ourselves, build things, and grow as a species is through our tools. Computation is a tool.

These tools are extensions of the human mind. Consider that the first computers were just regular humans counting. We may have started with our fingers and toes as our first tools. And it wasn’t quick progress as the evolution from the abacus to modern computing took us nearly 4,000 years.

We’ve made an astonishing amount of progress in the last hundred years. We’ve gone from thousands of computations per second in the 1940s to 200 quadrillion calculations per second with modern super computers.

Consumer devices are better too. The computer I’m using to write this post has more power than the computers we used to send man to the moon. It’s 100,000 times faster with seven million times more memory.

Alas, as tools get more powerful the powerful get nervous. This isn’t the first bad artificial intelligence bill we’ve seen. We have Europe to thank for that. And it likely won’t be the last.

But defeating SB-1047 is a rare moment of bipartisan cooperation not only in California but across the world as the entire compute space came together to make its voice heard. And Gavin Newsom listened.

We should celebrate this rare consensus as we look towards better policy in our future.

Categories
Politics

Day 1358 and I Must Subsidize Demand

There is a beloved meme in communities like YIMBYism (a movement advocating for building more housing with the slogan “yes in my neighborhood”) in which the protagonist agonizes over subsidizing demand as the cyclical pattern of rising demand giving rise to rising cost carries on.

“I just need to subsidize demand”

America is a strange place where we espouse a lot of free market policies but we tend to favor subsidies as a solution. Which isn’t always a bad thing. Sometimes there are good reasons for providing support for things that aren’t as commercially viable immediately like pure science or education or other public goods.

It is however not the only policy tool available to people. A fun fact about how I have a good time, my participation in civic life was as an appointee on the New York City Community Boards. I was part of a group who approve licenses and permits for things like liquor and parades and the like. I also served on quality of life and transportation boards. I also did monthly meetings for land use.

I was easily the youngest person who volunteered time and I learned a lot about how damn many rules we have at every level from neighborhood to city and state on everything from ventilation and to environmental review. And some of those rules are pretty good things!

But it would be preposterous to say that all rules are good and that every part of the process of starting a business (large or small) is easy. Some problems you can’t through money at and fix. Or if you can it creates a whole unintended set of other problems. Like paying for lawyers and consultants.

Because Twitter is the land of any old idiot getting a say (just like a community board meeting) I’ve got every flavor of opposition and missing the point on this tweet.

We do a lot well in America. It’s relatively much easier to start an LLC and get a license to do business. Complying with everything from the liquor board to FinCEN will take a little more. Anyone who has run a business can tell you about their corner of the universe and the paperwork involved. Just ask my husband who spends most of his time as a businessman keeping up with paperwork.

I think it’s perfectly fine to be skeptical that throwing more money at a problem like how challenging it is as a business owner to contend with government bureaucracy. Demand subsidies can only fix so mich. It’s just a lot more complicated than that. Be smart and don’t let your head spin like our meme gentleman.

Categories
Startups

Day 1334 and Heads Down

I had a couple days of flare in my autoimmune condition that had struggling last week. Down time in bed, especially when you are in pain, can be a bit dangerous when the news cycle is popping off. Pain and American politics are a terrible combination.

I do pay attention to politics alas as I am involved in a number of issues (#FreedomToCompute, regulatory reform, and housing) so it’s easy to over do it with being extremely online. My nervous system doesn’t need any additional stimulation.

I was relieved to be back on my feet today as it felt good to be heads down at work. I’m excited about how my seed investing has been going over the past few years and I’m taking the next steps to evolve the fund. I’m so optimistic about what can be achieved. Founders are particularly motivated to build. Ingenuity sparks when things are darkest.