Tag: Commitment

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Culture Politics

Day 1407 and Winners

Everyone loves an underdog because we can all see ourselves in them. But far fewer people can honestly love a winner.

Love expects nothing in return. Once someone is a winner people expecting things. And that’s not love, it’s an obligation. You see it in every arena from sports and business to politics.

Instead of seeing the humanity in winners for aspirations and possibilities we begin to love them for their achievements. When they stumble we shame them. We find fault. We want them to become losers. And then we hate them for losing.

The world is going through a significant power realignment and America has a new set of winners we are about to expect a lot from.

People who didn’t believe they could (or even should) be winners will throw themselves into the task of hating them. Others will throw themselves into loving the winners only because they are winners.

People come out of the woodwork when a team makes it to the championship. Sure, it would have been nice to have them when victory seemed impossible but that’s not how it works.

Don’t give into the temptation to expect too much from winners. People are people. Don’t give into the temptation to hate winners either. And absolutely do not hate the people who love winning. We’ve not found a way to override human nature..

Categories
Culture Politics

Day 1404 and Once More Unto the Breach

We have arrived at Election Eve in America. It’s a bit tense online and in the media, but there is a palpable feeling of relief that the day is finally upon us.

That relief dissipates as rapidly as morning mist on a sunny day as the one contemplates the range of possibilities. No one has any idea how things will turn out even the most informed political analysts.

As we go to the ballot tomorrow I’ve got a William Shakespeare’s play Henry V on my mind as I rally myself to the effort. We’ve sacrificed so much to arrive at this moment as a nation.

Once more unto the breach!

The moral burden weighing on Henry seems an apt metaphor for the burden of self governance placed on Americans.

As Henry walked among his men to find out what they really thought of his leadership so too we wander social media in hopes of understanding our fellow citizens. What do they think? Will be come together?

I’ll admit much of my interest in Shakespeare comes not from any particular love of the Bard (schooling forces it upon you which can sour a child) but from my exposure the most memorable speeches reinterpreted in popular culture.

When I looked for a synopsis of the above famous line from Act 3, Scene 1 perplexityAI enjoyable suggested follow up search for Shakespeare references in Star Trek. From the Wrath of Khan to Captain Picard there are many references.

Culture is beautiful like that. The stories we tell ourselves are rewritten endlessly as we live through our own history. What might we gain or lose tomorrow? Will it be just? Will our decisions lead to wars or resolve us to peace? No one knows. And yet once more to the ballot we go.

Categories
Culture

Day 1399 and Mimetic Competition

Opting into someone else’s personal metrics is a misery. When you dump a group of powerful or influential groups with adjacent but not aligned values you find status competition with in-group and inter-group.

I find this to be a little bit of a breach of decorum. People who pursue different goals don’t want other people’s rules applied to them.

So you find fearful politeness if you are unsure of inter-group norms. Everyone is interesting but not everyone has the same incentive sets or motivation.

The harder it is to feel safe within your in-group the less openness you will have with outsiders. Finding a way to ease the competitions for status only improves relationships between the allied groups. Find what you value and value the people who share those values.

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Aesthetics Travel

Day 1388 and Take Good Care of Them

I’ve written a few times about my interest in the right to repair. It’s not just a topic for computers or electronics. Many items can bring you lifelong joy.

Being in New York City I brought in a pair of boots for repair to the cobbler to the fashionistas Leather Spa. My Gucci knee high kitten heel black boots deserves every bit of love and care I can bestow on them. I’ve been wearing them for fifteen plus years now.

These boots are so representative of how I think of my wardrobe. A friend and I were discussing lists and the autistic love for ranking and context. I had once maintained a cost-per-wear sheet with the aim of only investing in pieces that would last a lifetime.

The Gucci boots I took in for repairs were acquired when I had an employee discount. Simple and without any logo to be seen, they retailed for $900 back then. I got them for $450.

If you could find a comparable pair now it would be upwards of $2,200 and would likely have excessive hardware and ostentatious displays of logos and brand identity. Mine are simple and so I take good care of them.

To be seen through multiple decades by a boot is a reminder to prioritize the care and maintenance of what you already have. If you take good care of them they will take good care of you.

Categories
Finance Startups

Day 1376 and Q3 2024 Investor Update & Market Analysis for Chaotic Capital

Welcome to the Q3 2024 update for chaotic.capital LPs. I’m choosing to post a selection of our reporting publicly so prospective founders and LPs can see our thinking.

You may be invested in chaotic.capital because we invest in ideas that adapt humanity to our new chaotic era.

Enabling resilience in the face of unexpected & rapid change is our lodestar. It’s a simple heuristic that yields a complex thesis: that technology is a tool for increasing leverage. 

In addition to these investor letters, you can always visit jfredrickson.com, where I write every single day about whatever I’m thinking about. You are also welcome to DM me on Twitter @AlmostMedia or text me on Signal any time.

Q3 was another strong quarter for chaotic.capital. Our ability to identify and back founders early remains core to our success and we’re seeing it both with the inbound flow from founders (as seen in the two new deals we did this quarter) as well as the progress from our existing portfolio, with four new markups this quarter and substantial business progress on those and others.

The markets are increasingly focused on power and compute. What was once a contrarian focus on energy, infrastructure, crypto, and artificial intelligence has now become a core narrative among informed investors.

We believe the future of compute—particularly in relation to crypto and AI—will increasingly be viewed as a basic right, not a privilege, as these technologies scale to mass adoption. 

As governments grow more cautious about debt and monetary risk, individuals and organizations will turn to trustless systems to ensure secure transactions and autonomy.

This is why we focus our investments in the space on foundational layers that will power the next generation of applications.

With portfolio companies like Squads providing on-chain economy tooling, Kuzco reducing reliance on intermediaries while creating an open market, SFCompute pricing compute and creating spot markets, and Chroma becoming the go-to choice for open source vector databases, we see the intersection of crypto and AI creating secure, scalable systems for individuals and organizations alike.

Access to compute is quickly becoming synonymous with freedom of speech and, ultimately, the freedom to transact. 

These open trustless systems enable efficient transactions and verification, a crucial development as geopolitical multipolarity continues to rise, and more people need to ensure their interactions are secure without reliance on the state.

While Americans might not yet fully appreciate this, we’re seeing growing demand for these alternative systems and open models from those who are navigating increasing regulatory pressures and instability.

Europeans, whose governments are deploying strict limits on AI models are beginning to understand, those from countries facing geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Israel, Ukraine), live it already, and those in countries with unreliable currencies and legal systems have been navigating anarcho-tyranny for decades.

But it can be precarious in the US as well, in California it was only the intervention of a veto from Gavin Newsom that prevented SB-1047 from restricting compute and hobbling the development of open source models.

Looking forward, this ability to access compute at scale may well parallel the right to transact. As nations confront their own risks, network state behaviors will become more prevalent, driven by the need for secure, decentralized systems that ensure autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

We’re excited about the future of chaotic.capital and the opportunities ahead. As always, I’d love to talk about any of this with your discussions with you, so feel free to reach out. We’re just getting started, and there’s much more to come.

Categories
Emotional Work Politics Reading

Day 1371 and Against The Tides

I don’t swim very much as an adult but I grew up in an era with mandatory swimming tests (even at university).

I was lucky enough to not only learn to swim in the Pacific Ocean but in Colorado I spent a lot of time in our many creek, rivers and lakes. Freshwater has its own appeal and I’ve seen the tides work on the Great Lakes. But little is as magical as the buoyancy of seawater.

I’ve struggled with not having swimming and the joys of warm weather and cool water with some of my autoimmune challenges. A bathing suit I’d never worn came to represent some of that loss.

But today I was able to take a swim. I put on a bathing suit and was able to casually swim with just enough force applied to steady myself in a comfortable place against the increasingly forceful tide coming in. I felt like I’d won even if it was just for thirty minutes. I enjoyed a nice healthful thing in between the chaos of a very busy moment.

I’m not much of a Fitzgerald fan and but the joy of finding the limitations in one’s life as you mature is the relatability of feeling the weight of a one’s years as you push against the tides.

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past

So many decisions cannot be undone and yet we steady ourselves against forces much bigger than we are. Pushing against some of the vastness of a sea while relaxing into its much bigger whole is quietly humbling

I feel good about pushing against the vastness but also not being so sure about my own place in much larger forces. It’s no wonder man yearns for the horizon.

I took a shower and immediately went back to work. But it was nice to be a human doing a human thing while all of this is going on around me. I held my own against the tides. And I intend to keep doing.

Categories
Politics

Day 1358 and I Must Subsidize Demand

There is a beloved meme in communities like YIMBYism (a movement advocating for building more housing with the slogan “yes in my neighborhood”) in which the protagonist agonizes over subsidizing demand as the cyclical pattern of rising demand giving rise to rising cost carries on.

“I just need to subsidize demand”

America is a strange place where we espouse a lot of free market policies but we tend to favor subsidies as a solution. Which isn’t always a bad thing. Sometimes there are good reasons for providing support for things that aren’t as commercially viable immediately like pure science or education or other public goods.

It is however not the only policy tool available to people. A fun fact about how I have a good time, my participation in civic life was as an appointee on the New York City Community Boards. I was part of a group who approve licenses and permits for things like liquor and parades and the like. I also served on quality of life and transportation boards. I also did monthly meetings for land use.

I was easily the youngest person who volunteered time and I learned a lot about how damn many rules we have at every level from neighborhood to city and state on everything from ventilation and to environmental review. And some of those rules are pretty good things!

But it would be preposterous to say that all rules are good and that every part of the process of starting a business (large or small) is easy. Some problems you can’t through money at and fix. Or if you can it creates a whole unintended set of other problems. Like paying for lawyers and consultants.

Because Twitter is the land of any old idiot getting a say (just like a community board meeting) I’ve got every flavor of opposition and missing the point on this tweet.

We do a lot well in America. It’s relatively much easier to start an LLC and get a license to do business. Complying with everything from the liquor board to FinCEN will take a little more. Anyone who has run a business can tell you about their corner of the universe and the paperwork involved. Just ask my husband who spends most of his time as a businessman keeping up with paperwork.

I think it’s perfectly fine to be skeptical that throwing more money at a problem like how challenging it is as a business owner to contend with government bureaucracy. Demand subsidies can only fix so mich. It’s just a lot more complicated than that. Be smart and don’t let your head spin like our meme gentleman.

Categories
Internet Culture Politics

Day 1356 and Sick Sad World

Current ways of knowing are (maybe rightly) under scrutiny. Some of us attempt to source truth by look backwards citing Chesterton’s Fence.

I’ve been skeptical of romanticizing the past as traditional ways of knowing can be bad cultures too. Sick societies are a constant companion of human nature no matter how we long for that Paradise Lost.

Maladaptive cargo cults are everywhere (Silicon Valley has dozens of flavors) and these superstitions ca. reproduce for generations if nutritional gradients are surplus.n

Noble savages are as silly a concept as high minded aristocracy. You probably know a few maladaptive emotionally sick types within your own communities.

Next on Sick Sad World

Remember the long running joke of Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert? Truthiness. Emotive truthiness reigns supreme as “news-like” content bubbles in the Internet of AI slop battle out the truth of an issue not with verifiable facts but verifiable feelings. Which one is more maladaptive?

We were subjected to a week’s worth of BBQing content which was digested by the American psyche until we switched to the new cycle of a crazed would-be assassin and his failed attempt to kill former president Trump.

If so much of our society is maladaptive copies of civilizational failures, the best any of us can do is pray we are humble enough to see truth and we willing to adapt our ways to it.

Categories
Community Culture

Day 1349 and Worry Not

Through Robin Hanson’s link round up today I came across a review of a book by Joyce Beresen “Warriors and Worriers” that has a novel thesis on how different sexes cooperate and compete.

Human males form cooperative groups that compete against out-groups, while human females exclude other females in their quest to find mates, female family members to invest in their children, and keep their own hearts ticking. In the process, Benenson turns upside down the familiar wisdom that women are more sociable than men and that men are more competitive than women.

The Survival of the Sexes: Warriors and Worriers

The reviewer Tove K of Wood from Eden suggests that Bereson’s work shows that worry and fear may be playing a part in our current fertility crisis for women.

If women worry more about competing for resources than men because their social competitions are zero sum (versus men who must be more cooperative for group defense) than I can see how if you get to fear being a driver of inferiority. If you are struggling with poverty or resource constraint you might be living in fear. It’s hard to imagine that there are infinite games. Maybe too many of us can’t see beyond limited zero sum “us versus them” resources competitions.

In that theme, Bryan Caplan wonders if only fear (and shame) can sway the highly impulsive as they are not as able to see cause and effect.

When I grew up young women experienced rather pervasive fear and shame on becoming pregnant. Now we see more women convinced to pull back from the risk of children entirely.

What I can’t quite square in these theories is how much actual resource constraints play into this versus the subjective differences in resources we see in our social groups. Is it all a comparison game?

You may be doing objectively better than any of your ancestors but still feel inadequate next to a lavish Instagram feed of an influencer. If you don’t think you can live up to the high standards of parenting required in American life maybe you’d worry yourself into a smaller family.

Or as many are choosing you’d worry yourself into no children at all. Last week the Surgeon General said Americans were in a crisis of parental stress. Who wants that? I’d say that women should worry less but if our biology says “only the paranoid survive” the future of humanity will take more than just our evolutionary instincts. We need to want to live.

Categories
Startups

Day 1343 and LFG?

The aftermath of a long weekend is one of my favorite shared cultural experiences. The scramble to reposition yourself back to your work, family and home life always makes the first 24-48 hours back extremely chaotic. The sprint to send reminder emails and respond in kind to others is overwhelming for everyone.

Any number of projects, financings, fundraises, and other sundry needs and obligations are percolating back into my inboxes.

First it was the three day weekend folks. Then today the “extra” four day folks. And yet the materials I need most are still in that liminal space of “not quite back to the office” just yet.

I was at our normally quite sleepy local airport today and it was packed. People leaving Yellowstone and Big Sky with a few folks returning home. A milieu of campers and and millionaires all navigating back to reality.

The next 10 weeks or so are some the best of the year to fundraise if you are an entrepreneur. It’s the season of “let’s fucking go” even as the chaos of the American election season has everyone on edge. Rightfully so as nothing roils markets like uncertainty.

Summer has activity but August tends to be dead and this first week back is when we all shake it off and return to work. The other seasons to raise are January through March with spring break and Easter as the first cut off. Then it’s best to try to finish your fundraising before the end of May or at least by mid-June.

So if you are ready to be back and are a founder fundraising (or considering it) just slide into my DMs on Twitter.