Tag: Chaotic

Categories
Media Politics

Day 1379 and Dodge and Weave

A lot is going on and I have little concentration in me today so I’ll keep this to a few tidbits of things I have on my radar.

The artificial intelligence x-risk Doomers are doing absolutely nothing to beat the charges that California SB 1047 was all about their fear of an imagined apocalypse and had absolutely nothing to do with useful policy or regulation.

Frankly I’d expect better from Scott Alexander and I’ll warn the Effective Altruist and Open Philanthropy crowd that if you willing to parlay with socialists don’t be surprised if those who advocate for broad state powers feel fine about using the state monopoly on violence on you when your interests no longer align. Liberals get the boot too.

But nobody listens to a cranky old libertarian like me in this multi-polar world. Though if you are inclined to listen to me please do read my investor report for the quarter. We are raising for our next fund and I’d be delighted to pitch you if you are the sort who has a spare 100K to invest in atomics, databases, decentralized compute and other oddball world changers.

In other bits of frustrating press narratives the New Yorker can soak up 34 minutes of your time with a “Silicon Valley matters in politics now more than ever” piece which is about how politico Chris Lehane is doing his job and representing the interests of an industry that still has enough money to pay his fees.

Perhaps politicians will consider not killing the golden goose that is the information economy and try listening to the folks who still make enough money to be considered good targets for more taxation about how we can keep making them tax money.

But I’m guessing if I ask Detroit how that ask to the government ends I won’t like the answer. I could ask Baltimore but Frank Sobotka and the Key Bridge are no more.

I truly thought one was supposed to get mellower in one’s old age but my politics seem to be rooted deeper than I realized. I just believe in markets and the prosperity that comes from free asssociation.

Categories
Preparedness

Day 1377 and The Responsibility of Preparing

I’ve written extensively about preparedness over the lifetime of this blog as we’ve experienced everything from a -40 polar vortex to a wildfire which burned down 3,000 homes in Boulder.

What people seem to forget is that life goes on during a disaster. My first taste of this was during Hurricane Sandy. My husband and I both worked through ten days of Manhattan being without power. And so we both prioritize preparing to manage through the disasters that man and nature throw our way.

We help our friends with preparedness. We have a sheet of our recommendations on what to purchase and for what scenarios. I suppose we could monetize some of that but we have generally treated this as an area where it’s our civic responsibility to be well prepared in a disaster so we don’t strain resources and can help others. We’ve both certified in wilderness medical incident response.

We are lucky to have the resources to be prepared but it’s easier than it looks. As the devastation of Helene has shown us everyone can find themselves at risk and it’s as a community that we can survive. I am praying for those in the path of Milton.

Categories
Finance Startups

Day 1376 and Q3 2024 Investor Update & Market Analysis for Chaotic Capital

Welcome to the Q3 2024 update for chaotic.capital LPs. I’m choosing to post a selection of our reporting publicly so prospective founders and LPs can see our thinking.

You may be invested in chaotic.capital because we invest in ideas that adapt humanity to our new chaotic era.

Enabling resilience in the face of unexpected & rapid change is our lodestar. It’s a simple heuristic that yields a complex thesis: that technology is a tool for increasing leverage. 

In addition to these investor letters, you can always visit jfredrickson.com, where I write every single day about whatever I’m thinking about. You are also welcome to DM me on Twitter @AlmostMedia or text me on Signal any time.

Q3 was another strong quarter for chaotic.capital. Our ability to identify and back founders early remains core to our success and we’re seeing it both with the inbound flow from founders (as seen in the two new deals we did this quarter) as well as the progress from our existing portfolio, with four new markups this quarter and substantial business progress on those and others.

The markets are increasingly focused on power and compute. What was once a contrarian focus on energy, infrastructure, crypto, and artificial intelligence has now become a core narrative among informed investors.

We believe the future of compute—particularly in relation to crypto and AI—will increasingly be viewed as a basic right, not a privilege, as these technologies scale to mass adoption. 

As governments grow more cautious about debt and monetary risk, individuals and organizations will turn to trustless systems to ensure secure transactions and autonomy.

This is why we focus our investments in the space on foundational layers that will power the next generation of applications.

With portfolio companies like Squads providing on-chain economy tooling, Kuzco reducing reliance on intermediaries while creating an open market, SFCompute pricing compute and creating spot markets, and Chroma becoming the go-to choice for open source vector databases, we see the intersection of crypto and AI creating secure, scalable systems for individuals and organizations alike.

Access to compute is quickly becoming synonymous with freedom of speech and, ultimately, the freedom to transact. 

These open trustless systems enable efficient transactions and verification, a crucial development as geopolitical multipolarity continues to rise, and more people need to ensure their interactions are secure without reliance on the state.

While Americans might not yet fully appreciate this, we’re seeing growing demand for these alternative systems and open models from those who are navigating increasing regulatory pressures and instability.

Europeans, whose governments are deploying strict limits on AI models are beginning to understand, those from countries facing geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Israel, Ukraine), live it already, and those in countries with unreliable currencies and legal systems have been navigating anarcho-tyranny for decades.

But it can be precarious in the US as well, in California it was only the intervention of a veto from Gavin Newsom that prevented SB-1047 from restricting compute and hobbling the development of open source models.

Looking forward, this ability to access compute at scale may well parallel the right to transact. As nations confront their own risks, network state behaviors will become more prevalent, driven by the need for secure, decentralized systems that ensure autonomy in an increasingly unpredictable world.

We’re excited about the future of chaotic.capital and the opportunities ahead. As always, I’d love to talk about any of this with your discussions with you, so feel free to reach out. We’re just getting started, and there’s much more to come.

Categories
Emotional Work Politics

Day 1372 and Everything Is Happening

The last forty eight hours or so have just been nonstop for me. Of course, that’s been true for the last week, the last month, the last quarter, the last year and the last decade.

Check KnowYourMeme for the full history of /pol and happenings.

The “nothing ever happens” bros might simply have made different life choices as from where I stand everyday is packed with happening.

I’ll grant the meme having originated as a geopolitical joke means it’s a little contextually inappropriate to apply to individuals and their own lives.

But what if “nothing ever happens” is just another way of justifying one’s own lack of agency? “Nothing ever happens” is admitting you are comfortable with being an NPC in the great game of life. Even if you are sure you are a bit player of little consequence you can rewrite your own programming.

Maybe we can look to another 4chan /pol meme “It’s Happening” for inspiration. Believe in your own capacity to have agency even when it’s small.

It’s Happening

Maybe world changing systemic change is beyond reach for most of us. That’s ok. But we can have a lot more happening with a few changes. You can play your own games and decide on your own rewards. I have. And it’s all happening for me and mine.

Categories
Aesthetics Politics Preparedness

Day 1362 and Hilux Drip

The right to repair movement is a worthy effort fighting the banal evil of planned obsolescence.

If you aren’t familiar with the term, it’s an economic and industrial design strategy to deliberately make products with shorter functional lives to “shorten the replacement cycle” aka make you buy a new one.

If you are a user of Apple products (as I am) then you are probably familiar with its reputation for degrading service. They are paying out to the tune of 500m for the practice.

But right to repair issues and planned obsolescence doesn’t just happen in electronics. It’s a problem in auto repair and home appliances too. Repairing a broken part can be more expensive than buying a new item.

And it’s getting worse. Computer chips are now in everything from your refrigerators and dishwasher to your car. Consumers reasonably loathe the increased complexity and challenges of repairing major purchases when everything is “smart.”

At this point I’m willing to pay more money for appliances with zero smart features and physical controls for everything. @ Kelsey Hightower

And I fear most of our regulatory climate is dedicated to making this problem worse. When Japanese automakers first come to the United States their vehicles had longer lifespans so American carmakers were forced to respond by building more durable products. That was a positive thing.

But geopolitical tensions being what they are the, U.S. Commerce Department proposed a national security ban on certain Chinese and Russian-made car parts from U.S. roads The motive is to protect American consumers from digital surveillance and hijacking. But who knows what gets caught up in the effort as we could be allowing in parts that make it easier to repair our own cars.

If we learned anything from Japanese cars it’s that allowing competition was an unalloyed good. There are cars I wish we had in America like the iconic Toyota Hilux. Here is a synopsis from Perplexity on why the Toyota Hilux is considered to be so durable. It’s got a robust chassis, a simple design that is easy to repair, minimal electronics and high quality components.

But you can’t own a Hilux in America. Why? The “Chicken Tax,” a tariff on light trucks, was imposed by the United States in retaliation for tariffs placed by other countries on American chickens.

But maybe it’s good we Americans can’t have a light truck that is easy to repair and designed to last. The internet has a long lore of memes dedicated to the car’s use in revolutions. You certainly wouldn’t want Americans getting any ideas about that.

A viral parody meme about why the Hilux is the choice for insurgents

Categories
Culture Preparedness

1355 and Critical Desalination Point

Being under the weather over the weekend, I’m watching comfort content. I like science fiction and big splashy science disaster porn.

I finally watched the 2019 Chinese “Wandering Earth” based on a short story by Liu Cixin

It was nice to see a big budget Chinese film with some modest Warrior Wolf diplomacy but it was mostly interesting because of the immense engineering projects and the scope of the thing.

I loved Roland Emmerich movies as a young woman. Splashy big budget movies that turned on goofy science jargon like “we’ve hit a critical desalination point!”

Dennis Quaid is an Everyman scientist

Remember a time when NOAA scientists could be heroes? Yeah it didn’t work that great. Trust the science. Alas we don’t have the same respect for government scientists in the era before Covid. I wonder what it would take to save the world.

Categories
Politics

Day 1351 and Overstimulated

Recently I have the misfortune of paying too much attention the American election season. I feel overstimulated.

I remember the 2020 campaign being stressful. I was naive during 2016. Now I find myself shunning information on polling and discourse on Twitter.

Americans have jobs, families and the problems of real life during our elections. And yet we spend billions and unleash a torrent of information, some of it propaganda, across all our public information spaces.

Every newspaper and Twitter feed and Subreddit is ready to stoke that anxiety that perfectly targets your worst and basest fears.

It’s natural to feel overstimulated by the deluge of noise. There is little signal to be found. I’ve written twenty times about propaganda because we are in a chaotic age. No one knows what’s going on. Together we piece together what we can and find reality together. Help someone make sense of the reality and maybe they pass it on. We can find out more together.

Categories
Startups

Day 1343 and LFG?

The aftermath of a long weekend is one of my favorite shared cultural experiences. The scramble to reposition yourself back to your work, family and home life always makes the first 24-48 hours back extremely chaotic. The sprint to send reminder emails and respond in kind to others is overwhelming for everyone.

Any number of projects, financings, fundraises, and other sundry needs and obligations are percolating back into my inboxes.

First it was the three day weekend folks. Then today the “extra” four day folks. And yet the materials I need most are still in that liminal space of “not quite back to the office” just yet.

I was at our normally quite sleepy local airport today and it was packed. People leaving Yellowstone and Big Sky with a few folks returning home. A milieu of campers and and millionaires all navigating back to reality.

The next 10 weeks or so are some the best of the year to fundraise if you are an entrepreneur. It’s the season of “let’s fucking go” even as the chaos of the American election season has everyone on edge. Rightfully so as nothing roils markets like uncertainty.

Summer has activity but August tends to be dead and this first week back is when we all shake it off and return to work. The other seasons to raise are January through March with spring break and Easter as the first cut off. Then it’s best to try to finish your fundraising before the end of May or at least by mid-June.

So if you are ready to be back and are a founder fundraising (or considering it) just slide into my DMs on Twitter.

Categories
Aesthetics Internet Culture Politics

Day 1328 and Weebs as New Social Elites

Yesterday, Occulus and Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey, posted a picture of him doing Nyan Neko Sugar Girl cosplay to his Twitter account. It’s a Fanime from 2010.

DragonCon enjoyers

On the heels of a sympathetic long form essay in Tablet Magazine that went viral, Palmer posting friendly cat girl jokes on main was clarion call to the one demographic that really matters in America right now. Nerds are the entry into the elite class.

Every flavor of nerd is flexing their might. Autistic weebs are claiming their power in the American elite class. And our politicians ans generals should be thrilled. It’s not not a moment too soon to put the engineers in on the great game

Showing off your niche knowledge is a favored elite game. Millenials & Zoomers understand their reality is being built upon arcane information and have gone for the deep cuts to keep up.

While on Tablet I came across their coverage of the Democratic National Convention where bizarre communist fervor from identities as inscrutable as Zoomer Hoxhaists are on display. Enver Hoxha being the infamous (and possibly crazy) communist dictator of Albania and not a good guy. But clearly some idiotic online intellectual has to treat history as if it were finding a cool band.

So if you subscribe to hidden knowledge as social capital then it’s time to read up on Gaetano Mosca and the Italian school of elitism. For discourse watchers, they were notable anti-fascist thinkers.

If you made it through the marathon Joe Rogan episode interviewing Peter Thiel you might have caught the memes about Chimp Empire. Well turns out that’s topical and an approachable angle.

every society could be split between two social classes: the one who rules and the one which is ruled

The current elite class of interests has looked beyond our military industrial complex to to Silicon Valley. They have known for sometime if you want to beat the communists (or the fascists or the oligarchy) then partnering with the new nerd elite is now your move.

Don’t worry Douglas MacArthur was a red blooded American military man and a weeb. Autists long a good track record in defense innovation.

If you want an eye to the future then learn the ways of the weeb. Drone warfare and embodied habits? Take it a step further WinterMute. Your transgendered simulated intelligence running that drone was trained on green text and it’s time you learn to speak like a native of the hive mind.

Rise up cat girls! Now is the hour of the weeb. Do it for America. Do it for capitalism. Do it so we get some sick Mecha suits from Uncle Sam.

Categories
Emotional Work Politics

Day 1315 and Ratfucking Season

I’ve been engaging in more of American political discourse online as we head into the main campaign season. That’s probably a mistake.

American is no country for old libertarians. Or in my case middle aged small “l” libertarians who aren’t keen on more government involvement in anything. Cyperpunk is became daily life and the crypto-libertarian instincts some of us were raised into make us distrust this particular flavor.

But I’m in a pretty decent mood all things considered. Perhaps the typical depressive lassitude of the sunny season is being mitigated by the climate controlled extremely online nature of the networked era. Madness without breaking a sweat.

My people are not much for sunnier climes and our popular culture representations have more than a touch of summer madness. Better to keep us indoors when the mercury climbs.

And yet the madness seeps in to the virtual worlds of media. August is full of ugly surprises.Which brings me to the rat fucking.

As I said, I’m watching American politics. It’s definitely Knives Out season and as my friend Jon Stokes points out the semiotics are ugly. Now that we have the Vice Presidency match up set as Ohio Senator JD Vance versus Minnesota Governor Tim Walz we can run cultural scripts. It’s already ugly, sexualized and bullying.

meme warfare b/c it codes Vance as the self-loathing, repressed kinkster who hasn’t yet come out to a loving ally dad who’ll embrace him & pass the torch to him

This is ratfucking season and the Democrats are on top of their game. Politico has a short history of ratfucking which anyone interested in political campaigns would do well to read.

Roger Stone has been with us doing dirty tricks for so long sometimes we forget that both sides are up to it and have been since before Nixon.

Like my goodness how things don’t repeat but rhyme in twisted new ways. We’ve got a Kennedy with a car crash crash and carcasses in the news.

It’s wild that the same people are still around and involved and somehow not dead. You shouldn’t get to do the “Summer of 68” twice in my opinion. And absolutely nobody wants a repeat of the 70s. Can you imagine cultural stagflation? Actually maybe I can

Maybe we are doing reinforcement learning in a simulation of some sort and we actually are in a gradient descent of madness being smeared across an event horizon of frenzied power dreams of an artificial American swampland simulation that ran too long. It’s all awfully crisp.