Tag: Entrepreneur

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Biohacking Chronic Disease

Day 1566 and Oxygenated

I am buzzing with energy as I spent my day touring the factory a hyperbaric chamber factory. I don’t want to get ahead of sharing details I haven’t cleared with them but I learned so much.

Istanbul is so far ahead on medical care delivery it is genuinely thrilling. There are 24 hour walk in hospitals. And

Which is good as the new IL17 inhibitor means to have a side effect of meiborn gland problems. In mere days I got another chalazion so I’d like that sliced out.

But my optimism about my immune systems capacity to operate functionally has taken a step towards optimism. That something so simple as oxygen and pressure has such significant benefits for our bodies is common sense.

How marvelous that the ingenuity of divers, doctors, athletes and under water workers to put together a treatment that is so effective it moved the biometrics of one of the healthiest men alive.

That only in the age of artificial intelligence did we get the inference capacity to show its efficacy is a real indictment of our academic and medical bureaucracy.

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Finance Medical Travel

Day 1562 and Istanbul

In a twist that one of my friends described as “an extremely Julie situation” I’m heading to Istanbul tomorrow. I’m in Europe so I’m actually going to drive. Any recommendations for hotels, great meals and must see sights are most welcome.

How I ended up on this last minute surprise journey is a long involved story that includes spotting a maintenance issue on a hyperbaric chamber, having a friendly mutual who swears by HBOT email the CEO to troubleshoot, and a long Twitter conversation to do said troubleshooting.

This then turned into an offer of a tour of the factory by their team (since we are in the market as we plan out our Montana medical spa) that was topped off by an offer to discuss the experience on my favorite podcast.

Apparently manufacturing complex medical equipment in this new era of tariffs and bilateral trade agreements is a topic of interest to many people as Turkey may end up a better trading partner than China for many categories of sophisticated equipment.

The Trump administration is making attempts to reorient more of the world under our trade & defense umbrella rather than China is obviously on everyone’s mind. Turkey is an advanced manufacturing industry from which I have imported in the distant past for textiles so I’m sure I’ll learn a lot from this trip.

One of the machines I’ll be checking out
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Biohacking Medical

1560 and Signs to Act

I’ve been holding myself a bit back from the world as I’ve been trying to take care of myself and lay low. Too much system input and a spate of bad luck (housing and health issues) made for a bumpy time.

So while I’ve been steadily attempting to stay online for some information flow my epistemic hygiene has mostly consisted of “staying offline” and working through routines that provide positive feedback loops.

I’ve been keenly interested in hyperbaric chamber oxygen therapy from both my very effective first set of treatments and the experiences I’ve seen in my own social circle. Everyone from local Bozeman friends (mostly men) working through injuries and chronic issues to tech’s favorite health billionaire Bryan Johnson have shared their enthusiasm for the therapy. It quite frankly just works.

We’ve acquired one (and am researching another provider that Bryan himself owns) as I’m exploring businesses that would allow us to bring them to Montana. Step one will be letting our friends come use ours in the barn! S

tep 100? Maybe MilFred Industries ends up with a wellness brand. I’ve certainly got extensive experience in every adjacent category from fitness (Equinox) to branded wellness (Goop) and direct to consumer cosmetics (Stowaway) so anything is possible.

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Finance Startups

Day 1542 and Future Blind

I am confident in my capacity to judge directional trends over time. I’ve been doing it consistently for close to twenty years. I’ve made solid bets that outweigh the wrong calls.

But right now I feel lost. I feel blind to short and medium term outcomes. I don’t know what happens next or in what order.

I’ve got a lot of working theories about how we orient over the next decade or two but I’ve got low confidence on anything nearer.

Perhaps this is because I simply don’t want my near term predictions to be true. They are too depressing and too cynical and too heartless.

An essay from Venkatesh Rao today titled Low Roads to High Places emphasizes why.

If a necessary historical evolution can occur via a low road or a high road, it will almost always happen via the low road.

He notes the law of the low road may simply be a an emergent consequence of thermodynamics. Entropy being what it is the path of least resistance wins.

Or maybe, as Rao suggests, the low road is a corollary to Abraham Thomas’ principle that to call macro-trends correctly you have to have “boundless optimism about technology and bottomless cynicism about humans.”

I’m just not ready to have bottomless cynicism about humans though I have optimism about technology. It’s possible to change our consensus and narrative direction and we do so regularly. Vibe shifts happen once an hour these days

Abraham Thomas has a theory that venture investing is temporal arbitrage. We are front running narrative consensus.

That’s why we look like herd animals eventually no matter how contrarian the bet was at the start.

Because being optimistic about the material changes that technology can bring has been the road to success. But I can’t decide how cynical I am able to be about my fellow humans.

Categories
Community Politics

Day 1540 and Zoning Out

Yesterday I was lucky enough to get a tour of a new mixed use housing development on the south side of Bozeman called Blackwood Groves.

I was introduced to one of the developers Dave through the serendipity of Twitter. He graciously walked Alex and I through the plans for community.

It’s thoughtful in including a range of housing types so younger families have a chance to grow. It has parks and public gathering spaces. It abuts public middle school. It will have retail amenities practical to the community. It feels like a little town in the town.

As a Montana resident who is Bozeman adjacent, I’m thrilled to see more housing being built. Especially for younger families. Having grown up in Boulder I feel a particular sense of obligation to make sure that Bozeman doesn’t end up like my hometown. Housing costs a fortune. Younger generations can’t afford to live and leave.

It’s hard to find housing. It’s hard to build housing. Housing is easily America’s most expensive problem. And seeing builders who want to make mountain towns actually feel like the towns we grew up in is encouraging.

Its hard to do well and there is a lot stacked against builders and buyers. We should want build up to a future that enables us to live and be industrious together across generations.

I support the Frontier Institute because it’s consistently putting force great policy on making sure we build the future in Montana. A little blurb from their work on property rights this sessions. Being able to build is going to take real reform.

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Startups

Day 1534 and Certitude

I’ve been busy with a founder who is running an astonishingly competitive seed round. Let’s just say I’m glad I wrote the first check.

I back founders long before it’s possible to have any certainty. I have accumulated enough signal and taste over twenty years to feel like I know when someone has what it takes to try their hand at a startup. It doesn’t mean it will work but I always believe in their capacity to do the work required.

Proving that out is probably the work of millions of pages of business school papers. No wonder we are complaining about the lack of builders. Wouldn’t it be better if we just put those resources into starting actual businesses instead of theorizing?

I’m a huge fan of always being a bit entrepreneurial. The much maligned “side hustle” that millenials and zoomers maintain out of necessity has its upside.

I like all scales and all kinds of business. Alex and started dating thanks to a swap on an Airbnb rent arbitrage. I’d let someone book dates for my apartment when I was supposed to be out of town. Trip dates change. Alex offered his apartment up if we split the profit. We’ve been in business ever since.

I’m working through a new local business plan we think will have community benefit (both in terms of job creation and service offering). Am I certain it will work?

Actually more certain than you’d expect this small scale that we can boot something up. Startups are much harder to judge than an existing business model with a new offering.

Incidentally if you are in Montana and looking for a medical grade hyperbaric chamber oxygen treatment we should have ours in a month or so.

Categories
Startups

Day 1521 and Reconsidering

I’ve been rereading the work of my internet friends Luke Burgis recently. His hugely influential book Wanting: The Power of Mimetic Desire in Everyday Life introduced popular culture to philosopher Rene Girard. 

I’d first encountered Girard at university and through Peter Thiel’s influence pursued further understanding of the work thanks to Luke’s scholarship on the topic. A quick orientation on the thesis is as follows. 

What Gravity Is To Physics, Mimetic Desire Is To Psychology”

I’ve found Luke’s thoughts on topics like existential safety and mimetic collapse to be regularly illuminating and would recommend reading his newsletter.

I am reconsidering some of the mimetics that are driving my life. We’ve had some amazing startup investments. I’ve been able to move policy issues into law. And I do it all with the added weight of chronic health issues.

It brings me joy to help the next generation of founders. It’s as close as I’ve come to a deep desire. I do it believe I love it.

I also have an idea of how it should look. The formality of funds and institutional investors has been the default way things are done in startups. I’ve never been too concerned with prestige but I have some attachments to what it should look like.

The irony being startups and the venture business are all about the big hit. There is no right way of achieving them as playbooks get rewritten every time we have a new technology.

So I wonder why I want things to look any way at all when the ultimate objective is to achieve a type of performance that is already emerging. Am I stuck wanting only because I want to mimic others? It seems possible.

That realization makes me want to let go of any preconceived notions of structure or aesthetic and to simply commit to my own process and how I find outliers.

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Emotional Work Startups

Day 1520 and Reflexively Negative

When I was younger I would try to demonstrate my cleverness by pointing out problems. Like many precocious youngsters, I was certain that this behavior provided value.

It’s exciting to feel the power that comes with understanding. It is especially intoxicating to students. No one is so fervent as a new convert.

Finding errors in reasoning, gaps in knowledge, poorly laid plans, and lapses in judgement can all be helpful when they are put to use in finding a path to success.

Being able to humbly accept corrections to one’s worldview or understanding when in error is crucial to being able to understand your reality. No one values that more than people who must succeed.

Alas, because finding and correcting misunderstanding is so important, it’s easy to slip into reflexive negativity as your only tactic. You mistake finding errors with being the only valuable contribution. It’s a classic problem with engineers. And unlike the young they rarely outgrow the habit.

Any founder who has had a pitch with a venture capitalist who can only focus on the problems and not the potential, understands why this it is unproductive to rely only on spotting issues. Being right about something being wrong doesn’t build anything.

Categories
Startups

Day 1518 and FOMO

I’m not fit for travel this week as I’ve got a couple physical issues that would do better without additional stress.

I am missing an event for a startup that is close to my heart. Being the first person to believe in a company and a founder is a special thing.

The people who said yes first on my own companies still years later mean so much to me. Their opinions still matter to me and succeeding for them remains a goal across decades and investment vehicles because that faith is so precious.

Being a part of someone’s story is risky. Especially on the first chapter you don’t know where the story goes. And that’s the beauty of it. Faith when there is nothing to go on.

I want more than anything to be the first believer. To see what no one else can. That’s part of my drive in investing. To be early is rewarding beyond the finances of it.

And so tonight I’ll have FOMO, or maybe just MO, as I will be missing out as Valar reveals Ward One. I feel like I live a pretty cool life if it has been writing checks into nuclear reactors. Hopefully soon I’ll be able to see it in person.

Categories
Emotional Work Startups

Day 1515 and Hope in the Dark

Given the amount of illness that seems to be plaguing folks this winter I’m surprised we’ve not all decided to hide until Spring thaw.

Every event seems to be a super spreader. Our physical immune systems are shot and I doubt our emotional defenses are much better. Everyone is predicting informational dangers myself included.

It is hard out there and we all experience it in different ways. My medical improvement sprint is plagued with logistical issues, the mold situation in our basement is overwhelming, and yet I have hope that I’ll make it.

o many people are dedicated to building solutions to problems, big and small, that I can’t selfishly let my any of my problems stand in my way. We have to all pull forward together.

I spent a few hours with a portfolio founder working on their fundraise today and I felt my optimism. I enjoyed the flow of work even as the enormous task of raising capital is filled with risk.

I’d taken a risk on directional play earlier in the year. I believe in the founder. They are making their way through YC. I can see their path emerging with every step forward. And I see hope.