Categories
Finance Politics

Day 430 and History Rhymes

If you aren’t following along I am in spending the month working from an Airbnb in Frankfurt. I picked Frankfurt on a whim when I decided to go to Europe. I wanted to work from “somewhere” else after two years of being home. It seemed like a nice central city and I’m a finance nerd (it drives my investments in crypto) so the home of the European Central Bank felt like a great pick.

When I booked the trip the war in Ukraine wasn’t even on the horizon. I was simply trying to get a change of scenery after two years of Covid lockdowns. But now I feel as if it might have been accidentally prescient to be here. Like I’m in some world historical nexus as Europe reorients itself to the next era of geopolitical reality. I couldn’t have picked a better place to absorb the zeitgeist that is going to drive the financial future.

I am going to spend my time here absorbing everything I can about about the currents of past intellectual movements like the Frankfurt School. I am going back to Weimar history and the interwar years. I will go further back to Goethe.

I have this gut sense that there is something I am supposed to learn about history so I can navigate the next decade. While I founded chaotic.capital on the thesis that the world was going to become more complex and thus inherently more unstable I didn’t expect those trends to unfold quite as fast as they did. I thought I had a decade. It turns out the future was already here. History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. And if I’m going to predict the next stanza I better start with the past.

Categories
Media

Day 429 and Not Unique

I’ve always assumed that Americans were, well, kind of the worst, when it comes to racism. Maybe it’s because we don’t generally lie about the fact that it’s an issue in our media. It feels like half of our news is about race.

Sure Twitter gets indignant about “the discourse” and regular folks get angry at being called racist for shit like voting for Trump. But like in general it’s not news that Americans have trouble with race. It’s kind of a given stereotype. We get more about being labeled a racist than we get about actually racist behaviors.

But you always assume that your problems are the most acute. I had a misguided unconscious bias that Americans are uniquely plagued by racism. But even within a few days of being in Germany I am reminded Americans aren’t the only ones who practice “casual” racism in every day situations.

I’ve noticed grocery clerks keeping an steady eye on brown shoppers. I’ve seen glances and grimaces when groups of men speaking another language go by. (Albanian in this case). And I’ve overheard conversations complaining about immigration and resources and costs. And then there are the journalists discussing the war in Ukraine and how unimaginable it is that Europe could be at war. Isn’t that something that only happens elsewhere? As if the Baltic and Balkan stated weren’t absolutely European too.

In some ways it’s comforting to see this play out somewhere that isn’t my home. It’s just human behavior. Ugly horrible behavior but not unique to anyone or any place.

Categories
Internet Culture Reading Travel

Day 427 and Rhythms

I’ve got a set of best practices for managing jet lag. If you are going east you get up a bit earlier and if it’s an overnight take something to immediately fall asleep even if it’s earlier. You should fast on your flight. this sucks if it involves first class and good booze but it’s worth it. When you land absolutely no napping. Stay up till normal bedtime even if it takes an extra coffee.

So far this seems to have worked for me. I woke up at 7am in Germany which is precisely my normal waking with the sun schedule. I didn’t have any issues waking up in the middle of the night nor did I have any fatigue in my workday.

Want to know the weirdest dumbest adjustment I can’t quite figure out? When to write my blog posts. It’s 5pm in Germany right now which is generally when I write my posts in Colorado. I prefer an end of the workday time as it lets me integrate the day’s knowledge and insights. But it’s only 9am in Colorado. When I post this as my own “end of day” wrap it will barely be the beginning of the day for my partners on the west coast.

This also has the effect of making me feel a bit out of the zeitgeist. When I woke up none of the overnight emails had gone out. Which meant I just got started on my day. Typically I spend an hour reading the news and drinking my coffee. But if there is no news to read it’s a much faster start to the day. So maybe it’s not that I’m out of the zeitgeist so much as the zeitgeist consumption process has tilted forward by 8 hours just as my day has done. I guess I better go open up Bloomberg and enjoy my morning news for with evening meal.

Categories
Emotional Work Preparedness

Day 425 and Toxic Positivity

One of my friends Josh Centers became the main character on Twitter yesterday. He’s a stellar writer and I absolutely recommend subscribing to his Unprepared newsletter as he’s my go to guy to for responsible even-handed insights on being prepared for emergencies large and small.

Josh got in trouble for pointing out that survival depends on keeping a positive attitude. But since it’s Russia war time it included the caveat that nuclear war is bad but also survival might be possible.

Nuclear war is bad. Very bad. Don’t get me wrong. But based on my research so far, it’s more survivable than you think. The key to survival is realistic optimism and a positive mental attitude. In the meantime, here’s how anyone can start food prep.

People don’t love being reminded we can in fact take care of ourselves. At first I was surprised. Of course having tenancy matters. But I think people might have disliked it because it suggested our chances met rest on our actions. Sure it’s scary to let go of any sense of victimhood and know in your heart you are responsible for your family.

Josh got called out for toxic positivity. Which if it is legible at all, it is in a millennial woke community. I see it most used when millenials are exhausted from a corporate job that treat them badly but as workers they are expected to be good sports. The idea what we must boot strap our way out of bad times is upsetting but pretty prevalent in a capitalist driven and individualistic society.

Toxic positivity has also become a catch all for substituting personal responsibility for problems like mental health when they are causes by society level public problems. So meditation, fitness, exercise etc can all be labeled toxic positivity if you use them to cope with systemic ills. Church would be considered toxic positivity as well. It’s a classic liberal conservative through line I think. Why should the individual be forced to shoulder a society level burden asks the socialist. The capitalist says why should I be forced to shoulder the burdens of these individuals.

The reality is that in an emergency it won’t matter your philosophy. You will have to cope with the issue, no matter big or small, as it comes and hope that others can improve on your response. But expecting that you will be taken care of or that you can take care of others is just as useless. That’s why preparation is crucial. It’s not toxic positivity but rather the cold harsh reality that only you can save yourself.

Categories
Emotional Work Internet Culture Travel

Day 424 and Meltdown

The zeitgeist is getting stupid and panicky. Which means I’m feeling stupid and panicked. We’ve got folks speculating on nuclear war. It’s all very productive (that’s sarcasm) so don’t be surprised if regular people are on edge for no rational reason. I was surprised to find myself on edge as I know I’m being impacted by propaganda. But knowing isn’t enough to stop the emotional response.

I’m traveling to Europe for the next month and while I’ve got some concern about escalations in the Russian war in Ukraine, there is nothing I can do about it. If things get hot and a real nuclear meltdown happens, I doubt I’ll be any safer in Denver than Berlin. But rationally knowing something and emotionally being integrated on it are two different things. I’m on edge even though there is no point to it. And I am determined to continue living my life no matter the external chaos. I’ve had enough of putting life on old. But that choice has emotional consequences.

I realized how on edge I was when a daily drug I take for longevity and metabolic health, Metformin, was out of refills. I leave tomorrow for a month so I needed to check in with a doctor today to get it fixed. I found myself on the call explaining a bunch of unnecessary extraneous detail to the poor assistant about how I needed a refill immediately but I couldn’t get blood work tomorrow to prepare for a telehealth visit next week as I’m traveling so could I schedule bloods and the visit for April and still get a month refill?

Somehow this simple errand just completely set me off and I felt myself welling up with tears and anxiety. How had I missed this small detail and why couldn’t I communicate it normally? Why did I sound like some flighty woman who can’t communicate effectively? I felt shame and embarrassment overtake me.

I ended up asking my husband for help as I just sounded so loopy and stupid. The assistant didn’t need my entire travel itinerary and the logic for when and why I couldn’t get bloods done. I just needed the refill and to schedule my next visit.

I think we underestimate just how much chaos impacts our daily lives and routines. You can be a zen Big Lebowski type but you are still surrounded by friends who are ready to lose their shit over nihilism or Nazis or bowling Jesus. The world is increasingly complex and our little reactionary parasympathetic system is leaning on evolutionary hacks that are outdated for our current moment. Tigers in the grass are not the same as willingly doomscrolling social media to absorb someone else’s propaganda. Sure they both use pattern matching but it’s kind of an order of magnitude issue.

So be kind to each other as we’ve all been living through two years of chaotic pandemic angst. And now we are asking folks to dig back up Cold War fears. If someone has a little meltdown over a basic choice cut then some slack. And give them a hug. And yes I’m talking about treating yourself better. This shit is wild and scary and stupid for all of us.

Categories
Internet Culture Preparedness

Day 423 and Hot Takes

I am a prolific shit poster. I am a haver of takes. I am a full fledged member of the discourse. But Jesus Christ I never thought I’d see the day where the galaxy brains are feeling good about having nuclear war takes. Literally the hottest of takes.

I am in a preparedness Discord with a number of very level headed people. There are people that I would trust to help me think through surviving a disaster. But none of us are foreign policy experts or plugged into the state department. Nevertheless we are speculating on the possibility that Ukraine’s invasion by Russia could take us there. But we are just speculating!

Now I’m not a Bluecheck media personality on Twitter but I do know what it’s like to have an influential opinion. I’ve got a small platform and I try to use my voice responsibly. Or at least make clear when I’m shitposting. Because people will take you seriously. So you have to occasionally do a double take on your takes.

It doesn’t feel like most people are being particularly careful today. There are a few voices that have got things right in the past that are working though thought experiments. That’s valuable. But the bulk of folks are engaging in some terrible information hygiene. Opinions are being had. But also propaganda is being circulated and disinformation warfare is being waged. So far the West is being clearly won by the scrappy Ukrainian narrative. But who knows what will stick. So he careful out there. We are literally at war. Don’t rush to conclusions or to share shit that looks too good to be true. You don’t want to end up pushing an agenda that isn’t your own.

Categories
Emotional Work Preparedness

Day 422 and Very Good Care

I’ve been bouncing around a little in the zeitgeist and media frenzy of last few days. I’ve not done a great job of processing the Russian war in Ukraine. I’ve got ambient stresses related to the generally chaotic moment so the acceleration of conflict felt both inevitable and unnerving. And yet we might outrun the apocalypse yet. Doomer optimism has never seemed so apt a term.

I am going to take care of myself during this tumult. This year of self love and affirmation means thriving in the worse situations. Because I take responsibility for myself. I am a victim to no person or circumstance. I control my response to any situation. That is the freedom to live.

But that thriving only occurs when I prioritize myself first. If I can’t parent my inner child through her fears and reactions, than how can anyone else trust that I will come through for them? Mutual trust comes from understanding the motivations in our relationships and what we get from each other. And that starts with being an adult to ourselves.

This idea of emotional responsibility is a simple concept that is surprisingly hard for people. I work on it every week in therapy. Feeling our emotions (often driven by our childhood experiences) gives the capacity to interact with others as an adult. It’s a step beyond professionalism. I’ve found it’s what separates those who are good at the work they do versus being truly great at their profession. The great are present in who they are.

So don’t be afraid to become truly ok. Thrive. Love yourself and your life even when it feels pointless. Even when the world feels crazy. Especially then. You have no need to attack yourself. Remove the self as an attack vector. We do not harm ourselves. The world is hard enough as it is that it needs no help from us. Now is the time to take care good care of yourself.

Categories
Internet Culture

Day 421 and Disassociated

My scheduled was packed today. I took several pitches. I spoke with an internet friend about some mutual interests. I did some travel arrangements for a real estate transaction I’m hoping will go my way.

I really felt the need to be busy today. For once I didn’t want to be too immersed in the zeitgeist. I somewhat dreaded checking Twitter. I actually listened to a whole podcast and went for an hour long walk in the freezing winter cold. I spent some time organizing my calendar for next week.

I’m rarely this task oriented. I generally need spaces that are open where I can lay down and soak up the current moment. I’m usually calmed by the drumbeat of information. I thrive on input.

But I couldn’t bring myself to be online. The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is too unsettling. The implications it has for a changing world order. The instability it represents. The second and third order impacts my mind can only grasp out but not fully see.

So I’m going to order some takeout. Maybe something fried. And I’ll watch Netflix. And I’m pretend that I’m comfortable in this consumption mediated disassociation. And I’m going to assume that it’s normal. Because my life is absolutely fine but I’m bearing witness to a tragedy being played live online.

Categories
Emotional Work Preparedness

Day 420 and Oxytocin

Stress is sneaking up on us everywhere. Just opening up a newspaper or scrolling Twitter is enough to spike your cortisol levels. I’m not quite ready to make jokes about World War III but I can see why people are.

I knew when I started chaotic.capital that folks might think I was a doomer and even a bit crazy. But I was confident that we’d be moving in a more chaotic world. I didn’t mean it in a bad way. Merely that in a world with increasing complexity we must all become more adaptable.

But today I didn’t feel like I was at my most adaptable. I felt as if my parasympathetic response was all out of whack. The inputs were overwhelming my nervous system. So I did what seemed most rational and also most emotionally appealing. I snuggled up to my husband and asked for a hug. I needed the oxytocin that is released from touch to counterbalance the cortisol that was flushing my system. If this is the new normal I need to up my oxytocin doses.

Categories
Medical Preparedness Travel

Day 419 and Back to Normal

One of my friends texted to say “I’m shocked the hygiene theater at EthDenver failed as half my team has Covid-19!” Which is of course sarcasm. But we are all back in action. Consequences be damned! I’ve booked conferences through June. A venture fund that backs my husband just booked their CEO summit for an in person gathering. I have finally started eating at restaurants indoors again.

But for all this ridiculous talk of getting back to normal it’s just a lull. I’m happy to be out there as I’m confident in my immunity and my own risk tolerance based on having had an infection and being up to date vaccines. But it might not remain that way. And for plenty of people their risk calculus can’t be as liberal as mine. We’ve left behind the immune compromised. America doesn’t give a fuck about the disabled.

I hadn’t really meant this as a Covid post but rather it’s an introduction to this striving for normalcy. The pandemic is wrapping up and we can “Get Back to Normal” is more slogan than reality. If only because there is no going back. We’ve got the annoyance of all the second and third order effects of the pandemic to deal with now. And that is going to suck more than the pandemic

Faith in institutions is shaken and probably damaged for an entire generation. Health and medicine will make big strides as we finally address long virus issues. Maybe more chronically ill folks get better care. But for most people their trust in science is shaken. Not sure if the good will outweigh the bad yet.

We’ve also normalized a wide swath of government interventions we’d previously never tolerated. But it’s for our own good! Sure but who decides on the good going forward? What might else it get used for? And more people than I’d expected cheered on this kind of meddling in our daily lives. All for the greater good obviously. But I’m worried what happens when fascists get to decide on what is a greater good. And since we’ve normalized intervention it will be harder to push back.

I really do believe things are becoming more chaotic. We’ve accelerated a whole swath of changes that are going to shift our world. Some of it may be in good ways. I certainly plan to make a lot of money investing in the belief that we will adapt swiftly and positively. And either I’m right and we survive and so I make a lot of money. Or I’m wrong and it probably doesn’t matter. We’ve got to leap into the unknown to find out. But back to normal? Sorry buddy but we live in interesting times.